Follow Up Stock Watch - WellCal & BPPLAS

It has been approx two weeks since I posted the stock watch list. Let's review the chart if they are still relevant.

BPPLAS

The chart still good showing higher low. After dividen ex-date, price drop to 1.22 but rebound back to 1.24 now.

WELLCAL

Price dropped to 1.14 at one time. I tried to collect at 1.14 but not successful. It is now stabilize to 1.17

Chart wise is still good. Hope to add some more. Waiting for the time to do the job !!

A bit of side story. I was in Singapore yesterday having two business meetings. While having lunch with my distributor, we talked about interest rate, inflation, weak KLCI, weak MYR against SGD blah blah....

Then we talked about investing in Singapore REIT. This is the time that I show off my knowledge a bit (haha). During MCO, I researched deeply on Singapore REIT. Made some monies but also lost some. The best investment was Fraser Logistic REIT which I sold about two years ago before the MYR lau Sai..

The price now is SGD 2.20 which has appreciated more than 50%.  I could have been laughing to the bank if I hold the stock until now !! 

Stock Watch - WellCal & BPPLAS

Stock Watch

Bursa is down for some time. Most of the stocks in my portfolio are in red except RCE and United Plantation. Stock selection is really critical if want to make some money in share market now.

Straight to the points. Two stocks that I think worth to pay attention. BPPLAS and WellCal. Both companies are showing profit margin improvement.

The key consideration is low risk so we don't lose much if share price goes against you. Duration wise is 3 to 6 months.  Dividen yield is not bad and pay every counter. So treat it as 3 months fixed deposit!!

WellCal Chart

WellCal Quarterly Performance

BPPLAS chart

BPPLAS  Quarterly performance 

2022 - Investment Review

Review for 2022 investment is as follow:

PLANTATION

The best performing sector will be plantation. INNOPRISE is the best stock on both dividen and capital appreciation. United Plantation is purely on dividen which is at 8% per annum. Coming Q1 of 2023 will expect RM1 dividen payment from United Plantation.

FINANCE

RCE Capital was a surprise when dividen of 23 cents was declared.  ELK Desa was a miss. Sold too early. Takaful was an under achiever. Share price was flat and only 12 cents dividen for the whole year.

PLASTIC

Poor performance. Sold Thong Guan even though the sales revenue was increasing every quarter. The share price is lackluste and dividen is not attractive at all. Still keeping BPPLAS for it dividen and growth prospect.

FURNITURE

Worst performance sector. HEVEA was the worst with capital depreciation of almost 30%. LIIHEN was at 15% and Pohuat at 3.85%. LIIHEN and Pohuat are giving dividen except Hevea.

OTHERS

Magni, Tongher and Samchem are still paper loss but dividen are OK.  KAWAN was a surprise winner appreciate about 35%.

GREAT MISS

There are always some great miss in investment. They are LITRAK and FAVCO. ULICORP and ELK-DESA also but at smaller scale.

Total dividen received in 2022 is approx MYR40k. Unrealized lost is approx MYR 38k against unrealized gain of MYR 35k.   

Overall investment performance is OK if compared to KLCI benchmark. At least the dividen is attractive in current bad market sentiment. 2023 investment will be defensive and to consolidate the portfolio.

BPPLAS - Next Wave of Rise

 Ah Pek company is on the rise again!!

I am checking on BPPLAS again after their latest Q2 result and the recent chart pattern. I won’t go into company fundamentals but below are the bullet points for easy reference.

• Net cash company
• Dividen every quarter
• Expansion on production
• Low resin price (low crude oil price)
• Benefit from USD appreciation (export)
• Chart Indicator (uptrend signal)

All are conducive for next phases of growth. Come on Ah Pek !

HEVEA UPDATE - 12 AUGUST

I have been holding Hevea for more than a year. Apart from dividen received, the share price is not exciting. In fact, dropping due to interest rate hike, rising resin price and inflation pressure.

However, it is not all that bad if we look into the fundamental. Company is cash rich and no issue with interest rate hike. Strong USD only benefit HEVEA as they are exporter. The input costs such as rubber wood and resin (glue) are in MYR.

Bulk of the business is from East Asia (Japan) and very small portion from USA. Hence, the impact on Hevea is very small.   

The Jan- May 2022 fibreboard export is increasing.

Source from MTC

I anticipate good 2^nd quarter result from Hevea. Let’s see.

Down side risk seems limited.

At time of writing I own some Hevea shares. Buy at your own risk.

June 2022 - Performance

Date :	5-Jul-22
PACKAGING	Avg buying price	Last closed price	% Gain/Loss
THONG GUAN	2.540	2.270	-11%
BPPLAS	1.456	1.250	-14%
FURNITURE
POH HUAT	1.410	1.360	-4%
LIIHEN	0.981	0.900	-8%
HEVEA	0.499	0.435	-13%
PLANTATION
INNOPRISE	1.234	1.310	6%
UNITED PLANTATION	14.697	14.000	-5%
OTHERS
SAMCHEM	0.837	0.735	-12%
MAGNI	1.954	1.910	-2%
KAWAN	1.658	1.640	-1%
WELLCAL	1.108	1.150	4%
FINANCIAL
RCE CAPITAL *	1.022	1.670	63%
ELK-DESA	1.350	1.300	-4%
TAKAFUL	3.645	3.150	-14%

SHARES ADDED

• INNOPRISE @ RM1.35

PACKAGING

Share price already reflected. Currrent high crude oil result in high resin price. Earning is affected. 

 

FURNITURE

Pohuat earning beated forecast. However, overall sector is done due inflation that will dampen the sales. Liihen has bonus issue which make the price lower. 

PLANTATION

This sector is down because of lower CPO price. I am still optimistic about INNOPRISE and UTDPLT. Both having free cash flow. It is time accumulate both stocks.

OTHER

Dispose CSC Steel and make some good profits. Dispose FAVCO as well but lower proft. KAWAN and SAMCHEM are on down trend because of bad market sentiment.

FINANCE

ELK-DESA and TAKAFUL are poor performers. Very disappointed especially Takaful.  It is bad investment fo TAKAFUL.

INNOPRISE - Can We Still Invest?

Fundamental :

Company has no bank borrowing as at 31^st December 2020. They have adopted a dividen policy of distributing 80% of the profit after tax. Revenue is cyclic as palm oil is commodity.

 

Q1 Result

 

Two major factors are CPO price and Production. I take the conservative 80% production output from the average of 2020 & 2021. Based on this production rate, let’s see how the CPO price will affect the earning per share and the dividen yield.

The EPS is generated using the formula that developed. It is not 100% but give very good indication.

 

 

 

CPO on Downtrend

 

 

The CPO down trend will continue as Indonesia cutting the export duty and putting more CPO supply to the market. Coming good harvest of Soybean in Latin America will also help to ease the supply shortage. Hence, I estimate that CPO will probably drop in between 3000-4000 level.

Based on this CPO level and dividen yield return, the price to enter is around RM1.36-RM1.50.

 

Stock Price on Down trend

 

Price already drops below the support level and will continue to drop. The bearish continue trend has shown.

 

At time of writing, I own some INNOPRISE shares @ low price. Waiting for opportunity to buy more.